Value betting is an incredibly popular strategy that is often used by those gamblers who have exhausted other betting opportunities. This style of play applies regardless of whether you are sports betting or playing online casino games.
What Is Value Betting?
Unlike arbitrage betting and matched betting, you do not bet on all outcomes at once with value betting. Value betting involves finding opportunities where bookmakers have overpriced odds and you place your bet with these odds. In contrast, with arbitrage betting, you usually cover your position by placing an opposing bet with an alternative bookmaker.
As the second bookmaker has more accurate odds, you will be obtaining a poor value for money by using arbitrage betting. However, with value betting, your bet is placed on the outcome with good value odds, thus, you know that you are obtaining a positive expected value.
In the long term, with enough value bets placed, you will overcome any variation in your results and see far higher profits than if you were to engage in arbitrage betting.
What Is Expected Value Betting?
Expected value sports betting involves you identifying specific scenarios where a bookmaker has overpriced odds that are not accurate reflections of the true probability of any given event. This is particularly profitable if they have priced odds that imply a probability that is far lower than the true probability of the outcome.
The probability of any outcome is the inverse of these value odds. Higher odds mean that there is a lower probability of an outcome happening. If a bookmaker has set odds of 1.80 for a top soccer team to win an EPL match, and you know that this team is far more likely to win than lose, this means that you can place a bet on this team winning and have an edge over the bookmaker who has set improbable odds.
Despite the bookmaker having a built-in profit margin, if you spot that any bookmaker is providing a far better price than it should be, you should definitely capitalize on this expected value.
Expected value is a mathematical concept that describes the outcome that is expected for any given event that has numerous possible outcomes. Simplistically speaking, if you multiply the probability of each outcome by the payout that is associated with that outcome, and then assess the expected value and probability of each outcome, you will be able to accurately place a value bet.
How Does Value Betting Apply To Sports Betting?
If you believe that a bookmaker has underestimated the probability of a sports event turning out a certain way, then you can capitalize on this by placing a value bet with this bookmaker. The only downside of implementing value betting in regard to sports is that while the expected profits are higher, the variance is larger and you will need to be careful when planning your bet to ensure that you do not lose your bankroll. Betting on a whim is not enough, you should have a good reason why you believe that they have misjudged their odds prior to placing a value bet.
How Do I Know Whether A Bet Has Value?
You will be aware that most bookmakers have low profit margins and change their odds quickly when news breaks. This sharpened bookmaker model is reliant on high turnover in order to make money consistently. This high turnover makes up for any tightening of their profit markings. Sharp bookmakers will pride themselves on having excellently priced odds that are accurate to the probability of any given outcome occurring. This is why they accept high bets and are allowed to do so.
As a value better, you will be able to capitalize on the sharpness of these bookmakers by assessing their odds and making your decisions accordingly. Then, you should place your bet at a soft bookmaker as you will have a stronger awareness of what the real odds should be and will be able to capitalize on the inefficiency of less-shark bookmakers. This will result in your obtaining a value bet by proxy of your own research.
To conclude, this article has outlined the premise behind value betting and the ways in which you will be able to place value bets. These bets are placed when you notice that a bookmaker has posted inaccurate odds in regards to a likely outcome. If you believe that a sports team is more likely to win a match than the bookmaker has suggested, then you can place a value bet on this team winning and reap the rewards when they do.
Placing value bets relies on you having knowledge into the potential outcomes of numerous scenarios. Thus, in order to become a value better, you should assess the books of those bookmakers who are more reputable in regards to their odds. Once you have assessed these and have a good understanding of what the odds should be in given scenarios, you will be able to make value bets at softer bookmakers who are less ‘on-the-ball’ in regard to changing their odds.
I hope that you have found this article to be insightful and informative. Thank you for reading.